The US Seizure of Maduro: How Trump Has Transformed the World's Superpower into a Rogue State

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.