Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”