How This Bizarre Season Shattered the Typical Coach of the Year Blueprint.

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still