Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Decline Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Statistics

The mean figure of daily murders monthly in the country has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government figures. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers might not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen during these past months is very significant,” the President stated, adding that last month the lowest amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than 4x greater than the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of peace was misleading. This is notably true given the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it might obscure periods when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

However in spite of these measures, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst remarked.